Hurricanes in the Yucatán

With hurricanes there is good news and bad news. Of course good news means no hurricanes or that a developed hurricane is on a course going out to sea and not affecting anywhere or anyone. It is a fact that we on the Yucatan Peninsula definitely live in hurricane territory. The perils of living in paradise! From June 1st to November 30th, which is hurricane season, we keep our eyes on the weather and its forecasts. The good news is, since we live in this area and know it is always possible we will be visited by a hurricane, we are old hands at knowing what to do and how to prepare. More good news is that hurricanes, unlike tsunamis and earthquakes, take days to form so you have time to prepare. Tsunamis and earthquakes just happen out of nowhere – hurricanes take up to a week to cross the Atlantic Ocean after they leave the coast of Africa. During hurricane season the people of the Yucatán monitor each and every swell that leaves Africa.

Tropical cyclones with maximum sustained surface winds of less than 39 mph are called "tropical depressions"; between 39 and 74 mph are called "tropical storms", and over 74 mph are called "hurricanes."

Hurricanes come in five strengths, known as the Saffir-Simpson intensity scale: Category 1: maximum sustained wind speeds of 74-95 mph. Category 2: 96-110 mph. Category 3: 111-130 mph. Category 4: 131-155 mph. Category 5: more than 155 mph. Winds in these speeds can cause extreme havoc.

The power of the rain and seas can do tremendous damage, too. Being close to the ocean creates special risks, and these areas are often evacuated. According to the National Hurricane Center, storm surge is the onshore rush of sea water caused by the high winds associated with a land-falling cyclone.

Historically, there have not been many hurricanes to hit the peninsula. In recent memory: Gilbert, Sept. 1988. Roxanne, Oct. 1995. Dolly, Aug. 1996. Isidore, Sept. 2002. Emily, July 2005. Wilma, Oct. 2005. Dean, Aug. 2007. FROM COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY: "We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."

Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, 2012, the following is predicted:

10 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

4 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

If you are here during this time frame, we advise you to be alert. Guests in hotels will be kept updated. It is important that you keep in touch with the front desk. If you are a traveler on your own, take a look at the front pages of the local newspapers. As a hurricane develops there are usually satellite pictures on the front page. You can also check the internet at the addresses below.

There is a warning system used by the Yucatán State government that tells you what you should be doing according the stage and nearness of the hurricane:

Yellow alert - Preparation Stage - Moderate danger - keep informed, locate temporary hurricane shelters in your area and prepare for possible evacuation. Get important papers (ID’S, passports, marriage/death/divorce certificates) and medications together. Use Zip-Lock bags. Figure out what you will do with any animals you have with you.

Orange alert - Alarm Stage - Evacuate risky areas (beaches, coastal villages, low lands) and constructions, be on alert. Move to shelter. Take papers and medicines.

Red alert - Evacuation Stage - You should be in the Shelter. Remain there and follow authorities’ instructions.

Things to do to prepare:
- Stock enough food, water and medicine to remain at home for at least three days without power in case rescue efforts are delayed or roads are blocked.
- Have a backup power source for home medical equipment.
- Know where your shut-off valves are for utilities such as gas, electricity and water.
- Have a list of your medications, allergies and medical conditions. Take it with you along with your medications if you evacuate.
- Have a cell phone (land line service can be interrupted.) Have an emergency contact person out of the area. For more information on hurricanes check out the following links:

NOAA Click on Gulf of Mexico, read the synopsis or warnings. You can then take a look at the wind and wave forecasts for 24, 48 and 72 time frames. Also visit http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ for current hurricane activity.
Weather Channel to view a satellite map of the Yucatan and the Gulf of Mexico.
Harvard Forest , Harvard University

NOAA's info on Hurricane Gilbert
Firsthand account of Hurricane Gilbert in Cancun
Merida's history from Hurricane City
Red Cross for hurricane victims
Yucatan Civil Protection Branch